Study of Melphalan Flufenamide (Melflufen) + Dex With Bortezomib or Daratumumab in Patients With RRMM
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 21% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 29% of the time (655 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2022-02-02, after 2018-04-12 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-02-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: priorbreastcancerpatientrefractory
Phrases that lowered it: asthmavaccinemalemultiplefev1 -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 159214 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 32124 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 2 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 4 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 159214 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 32124 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 85.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 20.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, cardiovascular, immunology, hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- bortezomib, daratumumab, dexamethasone, dobesilate, melphalan flufenamide
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Phase 2 Trial of MP0250 Plus Bortezomib + Dexamethasone in Patients With Multiple Myeloma NCT03136653 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
- Dexamethasone, Elotuzumab, and Pomalidomide in Treating Patients With Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT03713294 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
- Daratumumab-Based Therapy for the Treatment of Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma With Kidney Failure NCT04352205 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials terminated
- Immuno-Oncology Drugs Elotuzumab, Anti-LAG-3 and Anti-TIGIT NCT04150965 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated
- Monoclonal Antibody-Based Sequential Therapy for Deep Remission in Multiple Myeloma NCT03224507 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.