BI655130 (SPESOLIMAB) Induction Treatment in Patients With Moderate-to-severe Ulcerative Colitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (370 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-05-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placebo controlledblind placebothe safetyto screeningmoderate to
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsand safetyefficacy andphase iisafety of
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 106 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 493 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• This Study Tests How BI 655130 Works in Patients With Active Ulcerative Colitis. The Study Also Tests How Well BI 655130 is Tolerated and Whether it Helps the Patients NCT03100864 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• A Study in Patients With Mild or Moderate Ulcerative Colitis Who Take a TNF Inhibitor. The Study Investigates Whether Bowel Inflammation Improves When Patients Take BI 655130 in Addition to Their Current Therapy NCT03123120 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• A Study of the Safety, Efficacy, and Biomarker Response of BMS-986165 in Participants With Moderate to Severe Ulcerative Colitis NCT04613518 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of Andecaliximab (GS-5745) in Adults With Moderately to Severely Active Ulcerative Colitis NCT02520284 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate IBI112 in the Treatment of Moderate to Severe Active Ulcerative Colitis NCT05377580 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.