The ELiSA Study - Evaluation of Lixivaptan in Subjects With Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (192 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-02-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjects withsubjectmultiplediseasestatus
  Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticsopen labelevaluate theto evaluategood
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Roll-over Study to Assess Safety of Lixivaptan in Participants With ADPKD Who Completed Study PA-ADPKD-303 NCT05208866 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy and Safety of Lixivaptan in the Treatment of Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease NCT04064346 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials terminated
• A Study of RGLS8429 in Patients With Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease NCT05521191 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Tolvaptan in Subjects With Chronic Kidney Disease Between Late Stage 2 to Early Stage 4 Due to Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease NCT02160145 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• Safety, Pharmacokinetics, Tolerability and Efficacy of Tolvaptan in Children and Adolescents With ADPKD (Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease) NCT02964273 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.