Efficacy and Safety of Lixivaptan in the Treatment of Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (181 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-08-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: mrikidneyimagingliverinjury
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantsafety ofthe efficacyand safety
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Probenecid (PB) to Treat Hereditary Nephrogenic Diabetes Insipidus (NDI), ADPKD Treated With Tolvaptan, and Severely Polyuric Patients With Previous Lithium Administration NCT05190744 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• Pravastatin and Alkali Therapy in Patients With Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease NCT04284657 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Safety of Lixivaptan in Subjects Previously Treated With Tolvaptan for Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease NCT04152837 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials terminated
• Roll-over Study to Assess Safety of Lixivaptan in Participants With ADPKD Who Completed Study PA-ADPKD-303 NCT05208866 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of AZD5718 in Participants With Proteinuric Chronic Kidney Disease NCT04492722 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.