Probenecid (PB) to Treat Hereditary Nephrogenic Diabetes Insipidus (NDI), ADPKD Treated With Tolvaptan, and Severely Polyuric Patients With Previous Lithium Administration

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (130 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-12-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: kidneyhcvat timeliver diseaseurine
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsscreening visittrialto screeningand safety
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1298 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 259 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: supportive care (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of Lixivaptan in the Treatment of Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease NCT04064346 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials terminated
• Effects of Dapagliflozin in Non-diabetic Patients With Proteinuria NCT03190694 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate the Mechanistic Effects of Dapagliflozin Alone or in Combination With Balcinrenone, Compared to Balcinrenone and Placebo on Body Fluid and Electrolyte Handling and Energy Metabolism in Participants Over 50 Years of Age With Chronic Kidney Disease. NCT05884866 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Safety of Lixivaptan in Subjects Previously Treated With Tolvaptan for Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease NCT04152837 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of AZD5718 in Participants With Proteinuric Chronic Kidney Disease NCT04492722 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.