PK Study of Ticagrelor in Children Aged Less Than 24 Months, With Sickle Cell Disease (HESTIA4)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (117 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-05-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: moderatesickle24weightcell
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsinvestigatepatientagedjudged
• Primary purpose: other (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1490 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 120 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 72.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 1.92 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 0 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Pharmacokinetic (PK) and Pharmacodynamic (PD) Dose-ranging Phase II Study of Ticagrelor in Paediatric Patients With Sickle Cell Disease NCT02214121 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
• Effect of Ticagrelor vs. Placebo in the Reduction of Vaso-occlusive Crises in Pediatric Patients With Sickle Cell Disease NCT03615924 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials terminated
• Study to Evaluate the Effect of GBT440 in Pediatrics With Sickle Cell Disease NCT02850406 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials terminated
• Study of Dose Confirmation and Safety of Crizanlizumab in Pediatric Sickle Cell Disease Patients NCT03474965 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Effect of Ticagrelor in Reducing the Number of Days With Pain in Patients With Sickle Cell Disease NCT02482298 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.