Randomized Controlled Study of Comparing Follitrope Versus Gonal-f in Chinese Infertility Women.

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 7% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (169 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: donorrandomizationscreeningsubjectcontrolled
  Phrases that lowered it: ovarianpatients whoefficacyclinical trialfollicular
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase III Study Comparing Efficacy and Safety of AFOLIA vs Gonal-f® RFF in Women (35 to 42) Undergoing IVF NCT01687712 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Administration of Follicle-stimulating Hormone (FSH) and Low Dose Human Chorionic Gonadotropin (hCG) for Oocyte Maturity While Decreasing hCG Exposure in In Vitro Fertilization (IVF) Cycles NCT02310919 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• A Randomised Trial Comparing the Ovarian Response of a Starting Dose of Either 10 μg or 15 μg Follitropin Delta (FE 999049) to a Starting Dose of Either 150 IU or 225 IU Follitropin Alfa (GONAL-F) in Conventional Regimens in China NCT06173869 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• PERgoveriS In Stratified Treatment for Assisted Reproductive Technique NCT01297465 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• An Exploratory Study to Investigate the Effect of FE 999302 When Given Together With Follitropin Delta During Controlled Ovarian Stimulation NCT06466486 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.