Phase III Study Comparing Efficacy and Safety of AFOLIA vs Gonal-f® RFF in Women (35 to 42) Undergoing IVF

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (181 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-11-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: donorstagerandomizationearlysubject
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andsafety ofmalenormal
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 35 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sex: female (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 88.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Multi-centre Study to Compare Efficacy and Safety of AFOLIA and Gonal-f in Women for Assisted Reproductive Treatment NCT01121666 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Randomized Controlled Study of Comparing Follitrope Versus Gonal-f in Chinese Infertility Women. NCT03506243 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Randomized, Multicentre, Open Label, Evaluator Blinded Study to Evaluate Safety and Efficacy of Folitime® of Gemabiotech S.A., Versus Gonal-f ® of Merck Serono, in Patients With Infertility Undergoing ART NCT02454556 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Phase 3 Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Pergoveris® in Assisted Reproductive Technology (ESPART) NCT02047227 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of QL1012 in Women for Assisted Reproductive Treatment NCT05149924 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.