Phase 3 Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Pergoveris® in Assisted Reproductive Technology (ESPART)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (181 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2015-08-31, after 2014-01-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 4.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: subject hasalfacontrolledblindrandomized
Phrases that lowered it: trialefficacy andand safetyovariansafety of -
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 22 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 41 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 41 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 93 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 12.9% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 22 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 163 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 41 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 90.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 4.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- choriogonadotropin alfa, follitropin alfa, lutropin alfa
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- PERgoveriS In Stratified Treatment for Assisted Reproductive Technique NCT01297465 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
- Evidence-based Stimulation Trial With Human rFSH in Europe and Rest of World 1 NCT01956110 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- A Trial to Compare the Ovarian Response of REKOVELLE and GONAL-F in Conventional Dosing in Women Undergoing Controlled Ovarian Stimulation NCT05263388 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
- Phase III Study Comparing Efficacy and Safety of AFOLIA vs Gonal-f® RFF in Women (35 to 42) Undergoing IVF NCT01687712 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Randomized Controlled Study of Comparing Follitrope Versus Gonal-f in Chinese Infertility Women. NCT03506243 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.