Conditioning Regimen for Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem-Cell Transplantation

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (121 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-02-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: transplantdonorcellanemiafraction
  Phrases that lowered it: kgdisordersbloodclinicalsingle
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 119 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 38.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 287 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 0.25 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 39 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Reduced-Intensity Conditioning (RIC) and Myeloablative Conditioning (MAC) for HSCT in AML/MDS NCT02626715 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Pilot and Feasibility Study of Reduced-Intensity Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant for MonoMAC NCT00923364 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• High Dose Cyclophosphamide, Tacrolimus, and Mycophenolate Mofetil in Preventing Graft Versus Host Disease in Patients With Hematological Malignancies Undergoing Myeloablative or Reduced Intensity Donor Stem Cell Transplant NCT03128359 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• CD34 Selected Allogeneic HCT w/ Myeloablative Conditioning Plus CD8+ Memory TCell Infusion in MDS, AL and CML NCT04151706 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• Selective Depletion of CD45RA+ T Cells From Allogeneic Peripheral Blood Stem Cell Grafts in Preventing GVHD in Children NCT01858740 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.