High Dose Cyclophosphamide, Tacrolimus, and Mycophenolate Mofetil in Preventing Graft Versus Host Disease in Patients With Hematological Malignancies Undergoing Myeloablative or Reduced Intensity Donor Stem Cell Transplant

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 16% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-09-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: donorcellshlagrafttransplant
  Phrases that lowered it: patients whomalepatients withthe upperfemale
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 38 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 80.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: supportive care (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 317949 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 50820 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 5 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 118 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Novel Approaches for Graft-versus-Host Disease Prevention Compared to Contemporary Controls (BMT CTN 1203) NCT02208037 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• Tacrolimus, Bortezomib, & Thymoglobulin in Preventing Low Toxicity GVHD in Donor Blood Stem Cell Transplant Patients NCT02877082 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials terminated
• TAC/MTX vs. TAC/MMF/PTCY for Prevention of Graft-versus-Host Disease and Microbiome and Immune Reconstitution Study (BMT CTN 1703/1801) NCT03959241 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• Total Marrow and Lymphoid Irradiation and Chemotherapy Before Donor Transplant in Treating Patients With Myelodysplastic Syndrome or Acute Leukemia NCT02446964 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Graft-Versus-Host Disease Prophylaxis in Treating Patients With Hematologic Malignancies Undergoing Unrelated Donor Peripheral Blood Stem Cell Transplant NCT01231412 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.