Novel Approaches for Graft-versus-Host Disease Prevention Compared to Contemporary Controls (BMT CTN 1203)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 19% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (376 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2017-10-31, after 2014-08-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: leukemialymphomalymphocyticdonortreated
Phrases that lowered it: bortezomibbloodscreeningdetermined byhepatitis -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 276 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 7 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 77.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
-
Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 276 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 4.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 7 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 7 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 211393 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 35350 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 77.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 17.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, immunology, hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- bortezomib, cyclophosphamide, maraviroc, methotrexate, mycophenolate mofetil, mycophenolic acid, tacrolimus
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- TAC/MTX vs. TAC/MMF/PTCY for Prevention of Graft-versus-Host Disease and Microbiome and Immune Reconstitution Study (BMT CTN 1703/1801) NCT03959241 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
- Tacrolimus, Bortezomib, & Thymoglobulin in Preventing Low Toxicity GVHD in Donor Blood Stem Cell Transplant Patients NCT02877082 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials terminated
- High Dose Cyclophosphamide, Tacrolimus, and Mycophenolate Mofetil in Preventing Graft Versus Host Disease in Patients With Hematological Malignancies Undergoing Myeloablative or Reduced Intensity Donor Stem Cell Transplant NCT03128359 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
- Planned Donor Lymphocyte Infusion (DLI) After Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplantation (SCT) NCT01518153 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
- Donor Stem Cell Transplant in Treating Patients With High-Risk Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia or Small Lymphocytic Lymphoma NCT01027000 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.