TAC/MTX vs. TAC/MMF/PTCY for Prevention of Graft-versus-Host Disease and Microbiome and Immune Reconstitution Study (BMT CTN 1703/1801)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-09-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: leukemiacellmdsacutecancer
  Phrases that lowered it: methotrexatemulticentermtxphase iiirandomized
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 19.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 76.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 49 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 12.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 505294 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 94236 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Novel Approaches for Graft-versus-Host Disease Prevention Compared to Contemporary Controls (BMT CTN 1203) NCT02208037 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• High Dose Cyclophosphamide, Tacrolimus, and Mycophenolate Mofetil in Preventing Graft Versus Host Disease in Patients With Hematological Malignancies Undergoing Myeloablative or Reduced Intensity Donor Stem Cell Transplant NCT03128359 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Total Marrow and Lymphoid Irradiation and Chemotherapy Before Donor Transplant in Treating Patients With Myelodysplastic Syndrome or Acute Leukemia NCT02446964 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Efprezimod Alfa (CD24Fc, MK-7110) for the Prevention of Acute Graft Versus Host Disease (GVHD) Following Myeloablative Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation (HSCT) (MK-7110-005) NCT04095858 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials terminated
• Tacrolimus, Bortezomib, & Thymoglobulin in Preventing Low Toxicity GVHD in Donor Blood Stem Cell Transplant Patients NCT02877082 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.