2-Week Study In People With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 19% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (176 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-04-04, after 2018-06-21 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-04-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: or equalequal togreatermriheart
Phrases that lowered it: openpharmacokineticsdrugstudy toblood -
Sponsor's past trials: 1743 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 142 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Maximum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- basic science (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1743 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 15.9% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 142 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- 6-week Safety and PD Study in Adults With NAFLD NCT03256526 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
- Phase 2a, Dose-ranging Study With PF-05221304 in Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) NCT03248882 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
- A Study To Assess Pharmacodynamics, Safety And Tolerability Of PF-05221304 And PF-06865571 Co-Administered For 6 Weeks In Adults With Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease. NCT03776175 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
- A Double-blind Study to Assess 2 Doses of an Investigational Product for 16 Weeks in Participants With Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT03969719 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
- A Study of Pemafibrate in Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) NCT03350165 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.