Pharmacokinetics of Intravenous, Rectal, Intravesical, Vaginal, and Transdermal Melatonin in Healthy Female Volunteers

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 3% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (918 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-02-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: defined aspriorbreaststatusknown
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyvolunteerspharmacokineticscrossoveralcohol
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 61.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sex: female (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: basic science (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Anxiolytic and Analgesic Effects of Melatonin NCT02386319 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• MELATOX: Evaluation of Percutaneous Dissolvement of Melatonin When Used as Sunscreen; a Randomized, Placebo Controlled, Double-blind Crossover Study on Healthy Volunteers. NCT02224937 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Bioavailability Study Comparing Tolvaptan Administered Via Nasogastric Tube to Tolvaptan Tablets Swallowed Intact NCT01261481 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• A Pharmacokinetic Study of Vaginally and Intravenously Administered Oxytocin NCT01975129 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of 3 Dosages of Estriol After Continuous Vaginal Administration for 21 Days NCT03363997 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.