MELATOX: Evaluation of Percutaneous Dissolvement of Melatonin When Used as Sunscreen; a Randomized, Placebo Controlled, Double-blind Crossover Study on Healthy Volunteers.

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (918 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: percutaneousplacebopurposeurinecontrolled
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyvolunteerscrossoverpharmacokineticskg
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 28.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 8 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 2730 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 7 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pharmacokinetics of Intravenous, Rectal, Intravesical, Vaginal, and Transdermal Melatonin in Healthy Female Volunteers NCT03519750 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• The Sun Protective Effect of Melatonin NCT01873430 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Bioequivalence Study of Meloxicam Capsules 15 mg (Mobic® Capsules 15 mg) Versus Meloxicam Tablets 15 mg (Mobic® Tablets 15 mg) in Healthy Adult Volunteers NCT02183181 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
• Fasting Comparative Bioavailability Study of 2 Meloxicam 15 mg Tablets in Healthy Volunteers Under Fasting Condition NCT05125588 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
• Anxiolytic and Analgesic Effects of Melatonin NCT02386319 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.