The Sun Protective Effect of Melatonin
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 6% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (38 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2013-08-31, after 2013-05-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: placebo controlledthe skindoublefreeblind
Phrases that lowered it: volunteershealthytypeparticipantexposure -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: 90 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 15 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 18 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 735 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 5 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 90 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 18 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 11.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 15 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 2266 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 735 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 63.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 6.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- melatonin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- MELATOX: Evaluation of Percutaneous Dissolvement of Melatonin When Used as Sunscreen; a Randomized, Placebo Controlled, Double-blind Crossover Study on Healthy Volunteers. NCT02224937 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- Assessing a Natural Product Plus Bioadhesive Nanoparticle (BNP) Sunscreen NCT05736224 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- TMC435-TiDP16-C125 - Study in Healthy Volunteers to Evaluate the Potential of TMC435 to Increase the Sensitivity of the Skin Towards Exposure to Sun Light NCT01124799 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- Solar Lentigines Treatment With the Triple Combination Cream NCT00975312 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
- A Sunscreen Based on Bioadhesive Nanoparticles NCT02668536 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.