Assessing a Natural Product Plus Bioadhesive Nanoparticle (BNP) Sunscreen
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 9% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-09-01, after 2023-05-15 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-09-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 896 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 145 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: subjectmelanomascalehourspresence
Phrases that lowered it: individualstypeevaluate theto evaluatehealthy -
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 896 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 12.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 145 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Sunscreen Based on Bioadhesive Nanoparticles NCT02668536 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
- Determination of Sun Protection in Sunscreen Formulas (Study SR09-15)(P08236)(COMPLETED) NCT01001975 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- Assessment of the Human Systemic Absorption of Sunscreen Ingredients NCT03582215 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- Randomized and Open Label Study for Safety and Efficacy of DBI-102 vs. Vehicle vs. Hydroquinone on Skin Pigmentation and Lentigos NCT05511948 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- Phototoxicity Potential of 6% Bemotrizinol NCT05254925 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.