Nanocrystalline Gold to Treat Remyelination Failure in Chronic Optic Neuropathy In Multiple Sclerosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-07-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: eyesclerosisdiseasediagnosismri
  Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticsand safetythe efficacytrialallergy
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• 31P-MRS Imaging to Assess the Effects of CNM-Au8 on Impaired Neuronal Redox State in Multiple Sclerosis. NCT03993171 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• A Multi-Center, Open-Label Long-Term Extension Study of CNM-Au8 In Patients With Stable Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis NCT04626921 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Single Oral Doses Study of Nerispirdine on Visual Function in Patients With Multiple Sclerosis NCT00772525 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess Whether GSK239512 Can Remyelinate Lesions in Subjects With Relapsing Remitting Multiple Sclerosis NCT01772199 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• Ofatumumab Subcutaneous Administration in Subjects With Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis NCT01457924 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.