A Multi-Center, Open-Label Long-Term Extension Study of CNM-Au8 In Patients With Stable Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (63 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-09-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: mscarcinomaulnlong termmultiple sclerosis
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantspharmacokineticssafetyopen label
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Nanocrystalline Gold to Treat Remyelination Failure in Chronic Optic Neuropathy In Multiple Sclerosis NCT03536559 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials terminated
• Long-term Extension to Study AC-058B301 to Investigate Safety, Tolerability and Disease Control of Ponesimod 20 mg in Patients With Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis NCT03232073 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• 31P-MRS Imaging to Assess the Effects of CNM-Au8 on Impaired Neuronal Redox State in Multiple Sclerosis. NCT03993171 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• A Long-term Extension of Study GNC-401 NCT05049161 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials terminated
• An Extension Protocol for Multiple Sclerosis Patients Who Participated in Genzyme-Sponsored Studies of Alemtuzumab NCT00930553 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.