Safety and Efficacy of Melatonin in Patients With Multiple Progressive Primary Sclerosis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 18% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (121 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2026-02-18, after 2019-11-29 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-02-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: placebo controlledsclerosisblind placebodouble blindrandomized double
Phrases that lowered it: patientscountlimittransaminaseclinical trial -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 63.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 13 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 17 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 17 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 11.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 13 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 20947 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 4513 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 63.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 7.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, immunology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- melatonin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Effect of Melatonin on Multiple Sclerosis Related Fatigue NCT01718678 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- Melatonin in Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis Patients NCT01279876 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- A Phase IIIb, Multicenter, International Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of EK-12 in Patients With RRMS NCT03283397 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials terminated
- Effect of MD1003 in Progressive Multiple Sclerosis (SPI2) NCT02936037 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials terminated
- Efficacy Study of Andrographis Paniculata Purified Standardized Extract (ApE) in Patients With Multiple Sclerosis (MS) NCT02280876 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.