Long-term Safety and Efficacy Study of MT-8554 in Postmenopausal Women With Vasomotor Symptoms

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-11-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: long termextensioncompletedsubjectsstudy
  Phrases that lowered it: moderateto severetrialopenlabel
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• MT-8554 for Reduction of Vasomotor Symptoms in Postmenopausal Women NCT03291067 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of Multiple Doses of MT-8554 in Female Subjects Experiencing Vasomotor Symptoms NCT02803268 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of the Pharmacokinetics and Safety of BAY3427080 (NT-814) in Post-Menopausal Women With Vasomotor Symptoms NCT02865538 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Twenty-six Week Extension Trial of Org 50081 (Esmirtazapine) in Outpatients With Chronic Primary Insomnia (176003/P05721/MK-8265-007) NCT00750919 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials terminated
• Evaluate Long-Term Safety and Efficacy WC3011 (Estradiol Vaginal Cream) NCT01455597 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.