MT-8554 for Reduction of Vasomotor Symptoms in Postmenopausal Women
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 8% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-11-09, after 2017-10-09 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-11-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancercellulncarcinomabasal
Phrases that lowered it: the effecteffect ofsafety ofinvestigatorcheck -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of Multiple Doses of MT-8554 in Female Subjects Experiencing Vasomotor Symptoms NCT02803268 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- Long-term Safety and Efficacy Study of MT-8554 in Postmenopausal Women With Vasomotor Symptoms NCT03541200 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
- Evaluation of the Pharmacokinetics and Safety of BAY3427080 (NT-814) in Post-Menopausal Women With Vasomotor Symptoms NCT02865538 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy Study of AR08 for the Treatment of Vasomotor Symptoms (VMS) NCT02049164 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials terminated
- A Study of BAY3427080 (NT-814) in the Treatment of Moderate to Severe Post-menopausal Vasomotor Symptoms NCT03596762 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.