A Study of BAY3427080 (NT-814) in the Treatment of Moderate to Severe Post-menopausal Vasomotor Symptoms

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-11-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectto determinesymptomskeyprior
  Phrases that lowered it: history orpharmacokineticsabnormalclinically significantmoderate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 807 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 108 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.2% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Evaluation of the Pharmacokinetics and Safety of BAY3427080 (NT-814) in Post-Menopausal Women With Vasomotor Symptoms NCT02865538 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• E4Relief (Response to Estetrol in Life Improvement for MEnopausal-associated Hot Flushes) NCT02834312 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Dose-ranging, PK, Safety, Efficacy Study of Osanetant in Patients With Moderate/Severe VMS Associated With Menopause NCT05325775 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• MT-8554 for Reduction of Vasomotor Symptoms in Postmenopausal Women NCT03291067 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• Safety/Efficacy of Q-122 in Breast Cancer Patients Taking Tamoxifen or Aromatase Inhibitor NCT03518138 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.