Dose Escalation Study of the Pharmacodynamics, Pharmacokinetics, Safety, and Immunogenicity of BCD-132 in Patients With Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (544 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-03-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Design: factorial (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: sclerosismultiplescreeninginclusiverelapsing
  Phrases that lowered it: upperlimitpatientsof normalaccording
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: other (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 19 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Comparative Study of the Efficacy and Safety of BCD-132 With Teriflunomide and Placebo in Multiple Sclerosis NCT04056897 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• Comparative Clinical Trial to Evaluate Efficacy, Safety and Tolerance of BCD-054 and Avonex® for Treatment of Patients With Remitting-relapsing Multiple Sclerosis NCT02744222 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• An International, Multicenter, Randomized, Double-Blind, Double-Masked Study of the Efficacy and Safety of BCD-132 (JSC BIOCAD, Russia) Using an Active Reference Drug (Teriflunomide) for the Treatment of Patients With Multiple Sclerosis NCT05385744 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• Double Blind Combination of Rituximab by Intravenous and Intrathecal Injection Versus Placebo in Patients With Low-Inflammatory Secondary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis (RIVITaLISe) NCT01212094 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials terminated
• Investigating Mechanism of Action of DAC HYP in the Treatment of High-Inflammatory Multiple Sclerosis (MS) NCT01143441 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.