Comparative Study of the Efficacy and Safety of BCD-132 With Teriflunomide and Placebo in Multiple Sclerosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-01-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: sclerosispatientmriheartbaseline
  Phrases that lowered it: days beforeand safetymonths beforediseasesefficacy and
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 45.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 17 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Comparative Clinical Trial to Evaluate Efficacy, Safety and Tolerance of BCD-054 and Avonex® for Treatment of Patients With Remitting-relapsing Multiple Sclerosis NCT02744222 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Dose Escalation Study of the Pharmacodynamics, Pharmacokinetics, Safety, and Immunogenicity of BCD-132 in Patients With Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis NCT03551275 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• An International, Multicenter, Randomized, Double-Blind, Double-Masked Study of the Efficacy and Safety of BCD-132 (JSC BIOCAD, Russia) Using an Active Reference Drug (Teriflunomide) for the Treatment of Patients With Multiple Sclerosis NCT05385744 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability and Activity Study of Ibudilast in Subjects With Progressive Multiple Sclerosis NCT01982942 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
• Ofatumumab Subcutaneous Administration in Subjects With Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis NCT01457924 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.