The Effects of Sacubitril/Valsartan Compared to Valsartan on LV Remodelling in Asymptomatic LV Systolic Dysfunction After MI

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (381 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-07-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ventricularheart failureleftmyocardialinfarction
  Phrases that lowered it: drugbodyvisitsystolicplasma
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 67.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 25 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 126650 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 28077 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• International Study to Determine if AdreView Heart Function Scan Can be Used to Identify Patients With Mild or Moderate Heart Failure (HF) That Benefit From Implanted Medical Device NCT02656329 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials terminated
• Assessment of Efficacy of Mirabegron, a New beta3-adrenergic Receptor in the Prevention of Heart Failure NCT02599480 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess Efficacy and Safety of CDR132L in Patients With Reduced Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction After Myocardial Infarction NCT05350969 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• Early Mineralocorticoid Receptor Antagonist Treatment to Reduce Myocardial Infarct Size NCT01882179 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
• Bioprofiling Response to Mineralocorticoid Receptor Antagonists for the Prevention of Heart Failure NCT02556450 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.