Nivolumab for Recurrent or Progressive IDH Mutant Gliomas

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-02-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: braingliomatumorrecurrentserum
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantviruskgautoimmune
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 33.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Nivolumab, Ipilimumab, and Short-course Radiotherapy in Adults With Newly Diagnosed, MGMT Unmethylated Glioblastoma NCT03367715 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
• Efficacy of Nivolumab for Recurrent IDH Mutated High-Grade Gliomas NCT03925246 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• Ivosidenib (AG-120) With Nivolumab in IDH1 Mutant Tumors NCT04056910 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Association of Peripheral Blood Immunologic Response to Therapeutic Response to Adjuvant Treatment With Immune Checkpoint Inhibition (ICI) in Patients With Newly Diagnosed Glioblastoma or Gliosarcoma NCT04817254 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• Nivolumab in Combination With Temozolomide and Radiotherapy in Children and Adolescents With Newly Diagnosed High-grade Glioma NCT04267146 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.