Efficacy of Nivolumab for Recurrent IDH Mutated High-Grade Gliomas

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-08-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chemotherapycancertype diabeteswith typebreast
  Phrases that lowered it: 140drugpulmonaryweightclinical
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 31.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 194 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 741 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 89.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 11506 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 36849 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Nivolumab for Recurrent or Progressive IDH Mutant Gliomas NCT03557359 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Nivolumab, Ipilimumab, and Short-course Radiotherapy in Adults With Newly Diagnosed, MGMT Unmethylated Glioblastoma NCT03367715 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
• Relationship Between Tumor Mutation Burden and Predicted Neo-antigen Burden in Patients With Advanced Melanoma or Bladder Cancer Treated With Nivolumab or Nivolumab Plus Ipilimumab (CA209-260) NCT02553642 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• A Phase II Trial of Ipilimumab and Nivolumab for the Treatment of Rare Cancers NCT02923934 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• CheckpOiNt Blockade For Inhibition of Relapsed Mesothelioma NCT03063450 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.