A Study of Baricitinib (LY3009104) in Participants With Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (336 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2022-06-13, after 2018-06-27 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-06-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 141 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 1168 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: randomizationheartintravenousadfailure
Phrases that lowered it: participantevaluate theparticipantstopicaldermatitis -
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1168 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 6.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 141 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 29 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 21 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 93.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 10.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- immunology, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- baricitinib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of Long-term Baricitinib (LY3009104) Therapy in Atopic Dermatitis NCT03334435 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
- A Study of Baricitinib (LY3009104) in Patients With Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis NCT03334396 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
- Study of Baricitinib (LY3009104) in Patients With Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis NCT03334422 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
- A Study of Baricitinib (LY3009104) in Adult Participants With Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis NCT03435081 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
- A Study of Baricitinib (LY3009104) in Children and Adolescents With Atopic Dermatitis NCT03952559 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.