HIV-1-Gag Conserved-Element DNA Vaccine (p24CE) Vaccine Study
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 0% of the time (33 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-02-10, after 2019-03-26 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-02-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 1229 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: or equalcellsequal tocellgreater
Phrases that lowered it: participanthiv rnaparticipantsvaccineplasma -
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 111 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1229 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 111 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, immunology, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study to Assess Safety and Ability to Induce Immune Responses of HIV-1 Vaccines M3 and M4 Given Alone or in Combination in HIV-infected Adults NCT03844386 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- Safety and Immunogenicity of HIV-1 Vaccines C62-M4 or C1C62-M3M4 in Persons With HIV-1 Suppressed on ART NCT05604209 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
- Comparison of Dendritic Cell-Based Therapeutic Vaccine Strategies for HIV Functional Cure NCT03758625 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
- Evaluating the Safety, Tolerability, and Effect of a Human Monoclonal Antibody (VRC01) on Markers of HIV Persistence in HIV-Infected Adults Receiving Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) NCT02411539 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- Trial to Evaluate the Safety and Immunogenicity of a Modified Vaccinia Ankara (MVA)-Based Anti-Cytomegalovirus (CMV) Vaccine (Triplex®) NCT05099965 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.