Trial to Evaluate the Safety and Immunogenicity of a Modified Vaccinia Ankara (MVA)-Based Anti-Cytomegalovirus (CMV) Vaccine (Triplex®)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (122 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-10-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: entryeligiblestatuscellstherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: participantvaccineparticipantsarthiv rna
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1371 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 74 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Assess Safety and Ability to Induce Immune Responses of HIV-1 Vaccines M3 and M4 Given Alone or in Combination in HIV-infected Adults NCT03844386 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Safety and Immunogenicity of HIV-1 Vaccines C62-M4 or C1C62-M3M4 in Persons With HIV-1 Suppressed on ART NCT05604209 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Anti-inflammatory Effects of Letermovir (Prevymis) in Adults With Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)-1 and Asymptomatic Cytomegalovirus (CMV) Who Are on Suppressive Antiretroviral Therapy, Plus Its Effect on Chronic Inflammation, HIV Persistence and Other Clinical Outcomes. NCT04840199 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials terminated
• Pharmacokinetics and Safety of SAR441236 NCT03705169 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials terminated
• HIV-1-Gag Conserved-Element DNA Vaccine (p24CE) Vaccine Study NCT03560258 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.