A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of MEDI6012 in Acute ST Elevation Myocardial Infarction

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (389 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-01-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placebocoronarymyocardialacuteinfarction
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsevaluate theto evaluatethe efficacyindex
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 30 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 24 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 184 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• To Evaluate Safety, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of MEDI6012 in Subjects With Stable Coronary Artery Disease NCT02601560 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• A Phase 2 Trial of AMI MultiStem® Therapy in Subjects With Non-ST Elevation Acute Myocardial Infarction NCT02277613 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials terminated
• Evaluation of Myocardial Effects of MTP-131 for Reducing Reperfusion Injury in Patients With Acute Coronary Events NCT01572909 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• A Study of Acute Myocardial Infarction Using FDY-5301 NCT03470441 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
• Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of ATH3G10 in Patients With ST-elevation Myocardial Infarction NCT03991143 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.