Study of CDX-3379, a Human Monoclonal Antibody Targeting ERBB3, in Combination With the MEK Inhibitor, Trametinib, in Patients With Advanced Stage NRAS Mutant and BRAF/NRAS Wildtype (WT) Melanoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 33% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-09-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerbiopsyheartpatients mustradiation
  Phrases that lowered it: within weeksadministrationchilddrugmonoclonal
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 21.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 100 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 146 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 262 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 246 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• LCCC 1128: Open Label Phase II Trial of the BRAF Inhibitor (Dabrafenib) and the MEK Inhibitor (Trametinib) in Unresectable Stage III and Stage IV BRAF Mutant Melanoma; Correlation of Resistance With the Kinome and Functional Mutations NCT01726738 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Cabozantinib and Pembrolizumab for Advanced Metastatic Melanoma NCT03957551 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials terminated
• Dabrafenib, Trametinib and Hydroxychloroquine in Patients With Advanced BRAF Mutant Melanoma NCT02257424 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Neoadjuvant Vemurafenib + Cobimetinib + Atezolizumab in Melanoma: NEO-VC NCT02303951 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
• An Open-Label Phase II Study of the Combination of GSK2118436 and GSK1120212 in Patients With Metastatic Melanoma Which is Refractory or Resistant to BRAF Inhibitor NCT01619774 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.