Ambulatory Gynecologic Surgery: Finding the Optimal Opioid Prescription

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-08-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: painopioidsurgerypostoperativeopioids
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluateperiodthe aimmultiaim of
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 46 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 681473 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 72.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 145990 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Patient-Directed Postoperative Opioid Prescribing for Gynecologic Surgery NCT03805386 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Pilot Trial: Postoperative Opioid-free Analgesia NCT04254679 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• Comparing Intrathecal Morphine and Intraoperative Lidocaine Infusion to Epidural Anesthesia With Postoperative PCA for Patients Undergoing Exploratory Laparotomy NCT05017246 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
• Effect of Lidocaine in Reducing Opioids Requirement in Day Care Surgery NCT06717672 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Epidural Anesthesia Within an Enhanced Recovery Pathway in Reducing Pain in Patients Undergoing Gynecologic Surgery NCT02423876 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.