Patient-Directed Postoperative Opioid Prescribing for Gynecologic Surgery

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 31% for any early termination, 20% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (273 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-04-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: painpatientopioidequal tochronic
  Phrases that lowered it: therapyhoursprescribeduseddecision
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 893 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 256 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Ambulatory Gynecologic Surgery: Finding the Optimal Opioid Prescription NCT03588910 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Comparing Intrathecal Morphine and Intraoperative Lidocaine Infusion to Epidural Anesthesia With Postoperative PCA for Patients Undergoing Exploratory Laparotomy NCT05017246 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
• 5x-Multiplier vs 3-Tier Model for Discharge Opioid Prescriptions After Intra-abdominal Cancer Surgery: A Randomized Clinical Trial NCT06232577 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• Pilot Trial: Postoperative Opioid-free Analgesia NCT04254679 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• Epidural Anesthesia Within an Enhanced Recovery Pathway in Reducing Pain in Patients Undergoing Gynecologic Surgery NCT02423876 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.