The Efficacy, Safety and Pharmacokinetic of Antiplatelet Therapy for Vicagrel

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (389 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-07-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientshearttherapyphase iigrade
  Phrases that lowered it: allergiessafetyto evaluateevaluate theabnormal
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 86.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Comparative Study of ALX-0081 Versus GPIIb/IIIa Inhibitor in High Risk Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (PCI) Patients NCT01020383 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• Safety Evaluation of Clopidogrel Sulfate in Patients With Stable Angina/Old Myocardial Infarction to Whom Percutaneous Coronary Intervention is Being Planned NCT00821834 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• Ticagrelor Versus Prasugrel in Acute Coronary Syndromes After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention NCT01360437 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• Assessment of Loading With the P2Y12 Inhibitor Ticagrelor or Clopidogrel to Halt Ischemic Events in Patients Undergoing Elective Coronary Stenting NCT02617290 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• Compare Ticagrelor vs Clopidogrel on the Reduction of Arterial Stiffness and Wave Reflectionsin Patients With CAD. NCT02071212 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.