Phase I Study of EOC202 Plus Paclitaxel in Chinese Patients With Metastatic Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-12-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancermetastaticcellchemotherapytransplantation
  Phrases that lowered it: hcvaminotransferasefirst dosepatients whopharmacokinetics
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 21.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Compare Efficacy, Safety and Immunogenicity of HLX02 and Herceptin in Previously Untreated HER2 +Overexpressing Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT03084237 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• Pelareorep and Paclitaxel Injection in Chinese Patients With Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT05519059 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Phase 1 Study of FS-1502 in Patients With HER2 Expressed Advanced Solid Tumors and Breast Cancer. NCT03944499 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• A First-in-human Study of Multiple Doses of BB-1701 in Subjects With Locally Advanced/Metastatic HER2 Expressing Solid Tumors NCT04257110 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• Open-Label Study Evaluating the Safety and Tolerability of LJM716, BYL719 and Trastuzumab in Patients With Metastatic HER2+ Breast Cancer NCT02167854 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.