Alpelisib in Treating Participants With Transorally Resectable HPV-Associated Stage I-IVA Oropharyngeal Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 30% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2022-05-24, after 2019-03-11 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-05-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: necksubjectwomenuncontrolledhead
Phrases that lowered it: screeningblood pressureclinicalparticipantsmale -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 51 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- not given (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 122 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 13.9% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 51 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 52 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 9 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 100% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 5.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- alpelisib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Cetuximab + BYL719 + IMRT (Intensity-Modulated Radiation Therapy) in Stage III/IVB Head and Neck Squamous Cell Cancer (HNSCC) NCT02282371 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
- Phase Ib Study of Alpelisib With Cisplatin in Patients With HPV+ Solid Tumor Malignancies NCT02620839 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials terminated
- BrUOG 302:BYL719, Capecitabine and Radiation for Rectal Cancer: A Brown University Oncology Research Group Study NCT02550743 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated
- Alpelisib and Enzalutamide in Treating Patients With Androgen Receptor and PTEN Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT03207529 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
- Study of LEE011plus Cetuximab in Patients With a Cancer of the Head and Neck NCT02429089 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.