Efficacy and Safety Study of TAS5315 Compared With Placebo in Participants With Rheumatoid Arthritis.

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-05-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: antibodyrandomizationtreatedto assessinadequate
  Phrases that lowered it: rheumatoidarthritisrainhibitorsparticipants
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 29 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 64 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• ATI-450 Plus Methotrexate (MTX) Versus Placebo Plus MTX in Participants With Moderate to Severe Active Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) NCT05279417 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of ASP5094 in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis on Methotrexate NCT03257852 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• Study of ATI-450 Plus Methotrexate (MTX) vs MTX Alone in Patients With Moderate to Severe RA NCT04247815 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate the Safety and Efficacy of ABT-122 Given With Methotrexate in Subjects With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis Who Have an Inadequate Response to Methotrexate NCT02141997 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• A Multicenter, Randomized, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled Study of the Combination Therapy of T-614 and Methotrexate in Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients With an Inadequate Response to Methotrexate NCT00965757 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.