Study of ATI-450 Plus Methotrexate (MTX) vs MTX Alone in Patients With Moderate to Severe RA

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-02-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientgreaterstablereceivingactive
  Phrases that lowered it: moderateto investigateblood pressureinvestigate thera
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 65.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 313496 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 24 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 10 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• ATI-450 Plus Methotrexate (MTX) Versus Placebo Plus MTX in Participants With Moderate to Severe Active Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) NCT05279417 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of ASP015K in Moderate to Severe Rheumatoid Arthritis Subjects Who Have Had an Inadequate Response to Methotrexate NCT01554696 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of ASP5094 in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis on Methotrexate NCT03257852 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• A Study Investigating the Efficacy and Safety of Upadacitinib (ABT-494) Given With Methotrexate (MTX) in Adults With Rheumatoid Arthritis Who Have Had an Inadequate Response to MTX Alone NCT02066389 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Phase III Clinical Trial Comparing the Safety, Efficacy, and Immunogenicity of Recombinant Anti-interleukin-6 Receptor Humanized Monoclonal Antibody Injection in Combination With Methotrexate and Jamelor ® in the Treatment of Moderate to Severe Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT06048224 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.