Study of BHV-4157 in Alzheimer's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-12-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: alzheimeraddementiadiabetesscreening
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsimpairmentefficacy andevaluate theand safety
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Clinical Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of RPh201 Treatment in Individuals With Alzheimer's Disease With or Without Coexisting Cerebrovascular Disease NCT03462121 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Trial of Verubecestat (MK-8931) in Participants With Prodromal Alzheimer's Disease (MK-8931-019) NCT01953601 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated
• An Efficacy and Safety Trial of Verubecestat (MK-8931) in Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease (P07738) NCT01739348 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Safety, Tolerability, PK and PD of Posiphen® in Subjects With Early Alzheimer's Disease NCT02925650 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Safety and Tolerability of PQ912 in Subjects With Early Alzheimer's Disease NCT02389413 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.