Metformin for Pulmonary Hypertension HFpEF

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (446 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-02-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: pressurepulmonarytype diabetesejectionfraction
  Phrases that lowered it: mgmmdlstable doseperiod
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 735 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 166 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 64.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 250396 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of HS135 in Obese Patients With Pulmonary Hypertension and Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction NCT06581159 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated
• Metformin for Older Patients With Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction NCT05093959 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Whether Macitentan is an Effective and Safe Treatment for Patients With Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction and Pulmonary Vascular Disease NCT03153111 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• Dapagliflozin (DAPA) Effects in HFpEF NCT04730947 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• Treatment of PH With Angiotensin II Receptor Blocker and Neprilysin Inhibitor in HFpEF Patients With CardioMEMS Device NCT04753112 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.