Efficacy and Safety of TD-1473 in Crohn's Disease
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 8% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2021-12-30, after 2018-11-19 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-12-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: therapytrial ofpriordiseaseactive
Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluatethe efficacysubjectsstudy to -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 3.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor's past trials: 26 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 7 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 7 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 26 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 3.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 7 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Efficacy & Safety of TD-1473 in Ulcerative Colitis NCT03758443 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials terminated
- A Study to Assess Whether Etrolizumab is a Safe and Efficacious Treatment for Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Crohn's Disease NCT02394028 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
- TD-1473 for Active Ulcerative Colitis (UC) NCT02818686 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
- A Phase 2a Safety and Efficacy Open-Label Study of Tulisokibart (MK-7240/PRA023) in Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Crohn's Disease (MK-7240-006) NCT05013905 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
- VTX958 for the Treatment of Moderately to Severely Active Crohn's Disease NCT05688852 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.