A Phase 2a Safety and Efficacy Open-Label Study of Tulisokibart (MK-7240/PRA023) in Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Crohn's Disease (MK-7240-006)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-05-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: in subjectssubjects withdiagnosispotentialthe safety
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsefficacy andmkto evaluateevaluate the
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Upadacitinib (ABT-494) in Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Crohn's Disease Who Have Inadequately Responded to or Are Intolerant to Biologic Therapy NCT03345836 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• A Study of Mirikizumab (LY3074828) in Participants With Active Crohn's Disease NCT02891226 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• A Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Upadacitinib in Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Crohn's Disease Who Have Inadequately Responded to or Are Intolerant to Conventional and/or Biologic Therapies NCT03345849 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• Brodalumab (AMG 827) in Adults With Moderate to Severe Crohn's Disease NCT01150890 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Assess Whether Etrolizumab is a Safe and Efficacious Treatment for Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Crohn's Disease NCT02394028 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.