Rucaparib in Combination With Nivolumab in Patients With Advanced or Metastatic Biliary Tract Cancer Following Platinum Therapy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 33% for any early termination, 19% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: to registrationpatients mustcompletedplatinumprior
  Phrases that lowered it: copdtransplantationliverchildadvanced
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 29.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 32.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 11359 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 22 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 89.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 114 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Rucaparib and Nivolumab in Patients With Prostate or Endometrial Cancer NCT03572478 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials terminated
• Rucaparib and Pembrolizumab for Maintenance Therapy in Stage IV Non-Squamous Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT03559049 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
• Study of Nivolumab in Combination With Gemcitabine/Cisplatin or Ipilimumab for Patients With Advanced Unresectable Biliary Tract Cancer NCT03101566 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Study of Nivolumab in Patients With Advanced Refractory Biliary Tract Cancers NCT02829918 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
• Apatinib Plus Camrelizumab in Patients With Previously Treated Advanced Biliary Tract Cancer NCT04642664 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.