GDNF in ideopathicParkinsons Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (453 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-04-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: mribrainscoreplacebomotor
  Phrases that lowered it: participantssubjectsdaydrugalcohol
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 100% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 35 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Clinical Study to Test the Safety of CDNF by Brain Infusion in Patients With Parkinson's Disease NCT03295786 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• A Safety and Tolerability Study of Intracerebroventricular Administration of sNN0031 to Patients With Parkinson's Disease NCT00866502 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy Study of VY-AADC01 for Advanced Parkinson's Disease NCT03065192 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• Dopaminergic restauratIon by intraVEntriculaire Administration NCT04332276 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• Safety of CDNF by Brain Infusion in Patients With Parkinson's Disease. Extension to HP-CD-CL-2002 Clinical Study NCT03775538 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.