Safety of CDNF by Brain Infusion in Patients With Parkinson's Disease. Extension to HP-CD-CL-2002 Clinical Study

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (95 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-07-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: centralpettolerabilityof studytrauma
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyparticipantssafety ofmaleform
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 35 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 44.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 3571 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Clinical Study to Test the Safety of CDNF by Brain Infusion in Patients With Parkinson's Disease NCT03295786 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Study of Efficacy, Safety, Tolerability and PK of ND0612H in Subjects With Advanced Parkinson's Disease NCT02577523 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
• GDNF in ideopathicParkinsons Disease NCT03652363 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• A Safety, Tolerability, and Plasma Concentration Study of Levodopa/Carbidopa Subcutaneous Solution (ND0612) in Parkinson's Disease (PD) Patients NCT01725802 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Safety, Tolerability and Levodopa Pharmacokinetics Study of Repeated ND0612 in Parkinson's Disease Patients NCT01883505 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.