Single and Multiple Ascending Doses of MEDI6570 in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 7% of the time (318 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-07-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: msdiseasechronicseverecancer
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluatescreeningfemalepharmacokinetics
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 28 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 11 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 187 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, PK and PD of DA-1241 in Healthy Male Subjects and Subjects With T2DM NCT03646721 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate Different Doses of 0382 in Overweight and Obese Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus. NCT03244800 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Tolerability of MEDI0382 in Overweight and Obese Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT03745937 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• A Randomized, Double-Blind, Comparator- and Placebo-Controlled, Multiple-Dose Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of Three Dose Levels of MSDC-0602 in Type 2 Diabetic Patients NCT01280695 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Pharmacokinetics With MEDI8367 Administered in Healthy Subjects, and in Subjects With Chronic Kidney Disease NCT04365218 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.