Autologous Transplantation of Bronchial Basal Cells for Treatment of Bronchiectasis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (40 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-05-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 21.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellsstagetransplantationventricularbasal
  Phrases that lowered it: subjectsasthmacopiesevaluate thediseases
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 39 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 14 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• COPD Treatment by Transplantation of Autologous Bronchial Basal Cells NCT05594303 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• Autologous Bronchial Basal Cell Transplantation for Treatment of COPD NCT03188627 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Safety and Potential Efficacy of Human Mesenchymal Stem Cells in Non-Cystic Fibrosis Bronchiectasis NCT02625246 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• A Study in Patients With Non-cystic Fibrosis Bronchiectasis to Test How Well Different Doses of BI 1323495 Are Tolerated and How BI 1323495 Affects Biomarkers of Inflammation NCT04656275 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Test How Well BI 1291583 is Tolerated by People With Cystic Fibrosis Bronchiectasis (Clairafly™) NCT05865886 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.